1601—1603年的大饥荒

气候变迁

2008年由地质学家Verosub与Lippman所发表的研究指出，1600年秘鲁瓦伊纳普蒂纳火山爆发之后，全球各地发生饥荒。该火山1600到3200万公吨的悬浮微粒到大气中，尤其含有二氧化硫能进一步氧化形成硫酸，增加大气对太阳光反照率，导致火山严寒，作物歉收，牲口折损，大规模饥荒。

瑞士、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚均记载1600-1602年冬季特别寒冷。法国酿酒葡萄延后收获，德国与秘鲁的葡萄甚至都无法收成。中国明万历年间也发生气候变化，桃树花期延后。日本诹访湖湖面冰冻提早，破五百年来纪录。

粮食短缺

1601年俄罗斯粮食歉收，每8英斗（四分之一吨）裸麦价格翻倍，达到60-70戈比，即0.6-0.7卢布，隔年许多农家无足够种子播种，隔年秋收时，裸麦每8英斗价格涨到3卢布。即使1603年气候恢复稳定，但农产状况仍未恢复，饥荒加剧。

高笃诺夫政府试图以半价出售粮仓存粮来救济人民，后来又向主要城市的穷人分发粮食和金钱，直到国库枯竭，大势仍难以挽回。在这两年半的时间里，光莫斯科就有12.7万具尸体被埋在万人冢中，俄罗斯沙皇国人口减少三分之一。

The Russian famine of 1601–1603, Russia's worst famine in terms of proportional effect on the population, killed perhaps two million people: about 30% of the Russian people. The famine compounded the Time of Troubles (1598–1613), when the Tsardom of Russia was unsettled politically and was later invaded (1605–1618) by the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. The many deaths contributed to social disruption. The famine resulted from a volcanic winter, a series of worldwide record cold winters and crop disruption, which geologists in 2008 linked to the 1600 volcanic eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru.

Causes

A 2008 study by Kenneth L. Verosub and Jake Lippman documents worldwide famine after the eruption of the Huaynaputina volcano in Peru in 1600. Huaynaputina ejected 16 to 32 million metric tons of particulates into the atmosphere, notably sulfur dioxide, forming sulfuric acid and creating a volcanic winter; this reduced the amount of light which reached the surface, lowering the earth's Albedo, which scientists believe contributed to bitterly cold winters, loss of crops and animals, and massive famine around the world. As a result, people killed many animals with their bare hands to preserve their furs for warmth.

The famine was documented across the world: "Records from Switzerland, Latvia and Estonia record exceptionally cold winters in 1600–1602; in France, the 1601 wine harvest was late, and wine production collapsed in Germany and Colonial Peru. In China, peach trees bloomed late, and Lake Suwa in Japan had one of its earliest freezing dates in 500 years."

Famine

Following the poor harvest of 1601 the prices of grain doubled, reaching 60-70 kopecks per quarter of rye. In the next year many peasants did not have enough seeds to sow the fields and by fall the prices grew to 3 rubles per quarter. The weather in 1603 was fine but many fields were empty and thus the famine intensified.

Boris Godunov's government attempted unsuccessfully to help the people by selling grain from state granaries at half price and later by giving away grain and money to the poor in the major cities until the treasury was depleted. During this two-and-a-half-year period, 127,000 bodies were buried in mass graves in Moscow alone. According to a witness "one third of the Muscovite Tsardom perished from the famine."

Effects

The suffering and social disruption were part of the political unrest called the Time of Troubles. Petty gentry were hurt by the famine as badly as peasants and many were forced to sell themselves into slavery, joining the armed retinues of magnates. Others migrated to the steppe frontier and joined Cossacks, as did many runaway serfs. A large number of trained and armed individuals in the southern regions formed a large manpower pool which was tapped by multiple ensuing insurgencies.